by Alistair Strang, Trends and Targets


It's said, in the media PR game, one must come out with all guns blazing in choosing your Headline for any article. Given current media fascination with the price of Brent Crude and Donald Trump too, I think I ticked most of the boxes here. Perhaps I should mention a Queen can trump anything though!

This week, I need to get all teacherish with the chart below and explain my thinking with regard price projections for the black stuff. I've been made painfully aware a few folk tend assume I shall again call Brent right, just 'cos I've managed it previously. But, to unearth a cliché, even a stopped clock is right 732 times a year (well this year anyway) and I'm the first person to admit being right in the past is no guarantee of being right in the future. In fact, to summarise, I'm a coward.

Currently the price of Brent Crude is seen as heading to around 43.13 USD which from my perspective is fairly interesting. Since it bounced from 'my' 28USD, I now need the product to actually CLOSE a session above 42.28USD to tick the final box in an argument which favours continued growth to 46.84USD.



As the chart shows, this presents an interesting picture as it hints the price of the stuff will clamber once again above its historical uptrend since 2008. To be realistic, I would generally demand a price CLOSE a session to confirm a historical trend has been bettered. As this particular trend against RED was very much a last straw before the drip to 28USD, closure above is liable to be viewed as pretty significant with the result I'd tend anticipate future strength to 63.5 USD. At such a level, I start to have a problem as the price of BRENT is more than liable to invent a Glass Ceiling due to the highs of 2015. Throwing real world scenario against the product, it will become pretty likely BRENT risks being trapped between the high 40's and low 60's for a while.

Finally, as I just mentioned the risk of real world scenario, there is another little detail worth mentioning. Until BRENT actually closes above that RED trend line, a stonking argument remains for weakness again to 28 USD and now, the secondary of 15 USD is a viable prospect if the target drop level breaks. I think this unlikely but my software insists I mention it.



Alistair Strang is founder of