This finally brings me to Brent Crude as it’s at the edge of one of these things when I risk being gloriously wrong. BUT right anyway.

The chart below isn’t entirely self explanatory. But I suspect most experienced traders will gulp as they know what’s coming. (Boring Bit Alert…)


At time of writing, I’ve no choice other than to view Brent as heading to US $27.2. There’s a hope US $38 will provide a bounce point but when I apply the criteria I’ve been using since Brent was 107, bottom is now US $27.2.


Before rushing to a SB broker and loading a short, there are a few things worthy of consideration.


Firstly: The BLUE line since 2013. At time of writing, this trend line is at US$53. If it gets above such a level, it breaks THE IMMEDIATE downtrend and suggests my drop potentials are garbage.


Secondly:  Neither you nor I are the only people capable of drawing such a line and if the market decides to hit 38, then 27.2, wouldn’t it be a giggle to move above 54 first then drop it anyway.  This, unfortunately, is mathematically permissible as the price of the stuff actually needs better 110 currently to move out of a Big Picture sequence which ends at 27.2.

Third:  The ruling logic. If the price of BRENT manages above 54, I’m showing an initial target of 58 with secondary 66. Glancing at the chart above, the 66 thing is quite a big deal. If Brent Crude manages to actually CLOSE a day above US$66, it achieves a “Higher High”, that HOLY GRAIL of trading. Or in other words, it has probably stopped going down.


Of course, I wouldn’t be a proper fortune teller if I didn’t confuse matters further.

The Chocolate Orange principal.

Essentially, Scotland gets 1/10th of the UK oil revenue – a slice of a Chocolate Orange. The funny thing, the nasty people who make Chocolate Oranges have virtually reduced it in size by 50%. Which, by coincidence happened to the price of Brent Crude?  If Scotland were independent, it wouldn’t be getting a slice of the reduced Chocolate Orange but instead the whole reduced Chocolate Orange.


Due to faulty bathroom scales, I am permitted a Chocolate Orange just twice a year and thus very aware of changes to the product.


I’ll finish with a Share Price thing.


If Brent Crude was a share, I’d be comfortable it’s heading to 27.2p and warning clients of fake upward movements. This pretend share needs actually close a session above 66p before I’d dare start to think it’s not stuffed. But if this pretend share got to 27.2p, I’d take a strong long position with a fairly tight stop and wait see what happens.



Of course, there’s a big HOWEVER. Moves in the last week against Brent suggest it is bouncing. From the type of movements, it makes me nervous about my US $27 thing. While that still could be their intention, there’s a different ‘feel’ to recent movements. As happened with worldwide index’s, it can be worth paying attention to ‘feelings’.


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