finally brings me to Brent Crude as it’s at the edge of one of these things
when I risk being gloriously wrong. BUT right anyway.
chart below isn’t entirely self explanatory. But I suspect most experienced
traders will gulp as they know what’s coming. (Boring Bit Alert…)
time of writing, I’ve no choice other than to view Brent as heading to US
$27.2. There’s a hope US $38 will provide a bounce point but when I apply
the criteria I’ve been using since Brent was 107, bottom is now US $27.2.
Before rushing to a SB broker and loading a short, there are a few things
worthy of consideration.
BLUE line since 2013. At time of writing, this trend line is at US$53. If it
gets above such a level, it breaks THE IMMEDIATE downtrend and suggests my
drop potentials are garbage.
Neither you nor I are the only people capable of drawing such a line and if
the market decides to hit 38, then 27.2, wouldn’t it be a giggle to move
above 54 first then drop it anyway. This, unfortunately, is mathematically
permissible as the price of the stuff actually needs better 110 currently to
move out of a Big Picture sequence which ends at 27.2.
ruling logic. If the price of BRENT manages above 54, I’m showing an initial
target of 58 with secondary 66. Glancing at the chart above, the 66 thing is
quite a big deal. If Brent Crude manages to actually CLOSE a day above
US$66, it achieves a “Higher High”, that HOLY GRAIL of
trading. Or in other words, it has probably stopped going down.
course, I wouldn’t be a proper fortune teller if I didn’t confuse matters
Chocolate Orange principal.
Essentially, Scotland gets 1/10th of the UK oil revenue – a slice
of a Chocolate Orange. The funny thing, the nasty people who make Chocolate
Oranges have virtually reduced it in size by 50%. Which, by coincidence
happened to the price of Brent Crude? If Scotland were independent, it
wouldn’t be getting a slice of the reduced Chocolate Orange but instead the
whole reduced Chocolate Orange.
to faulty bathroom scales, I am permitted a Chocolate Orange
just twice a year and thus very aware of changes to the product.
finish with a Share Price thing.
Brent Crude was a share, I’d be comfortable it’s heading to 27.2p and
warning clients of fake upward movements. This pretend share needs actually
close a session above 66p before I’d dare start to think it’s not stuffed.
But if this pretend share got to 27.2p, I’d take a strong long position with
a fairly tight stop and wait see what happens.
course, there’s a big HOWEVER. Moves in the last week against Brent suggest
it is bouncing. From the type of movements, it makes me nervous about my US
$27 thing. While that still could be their intention, there’s a different
‘feel’ to recent movements. As happened with worldwide index’s, it can be
worth paying attention to ‘feelings’.